Democracy in the Middle East: What is the Role of Elections?

It's become pretty routine for Ted Eagles to take me and small groups of SPS students out to think tanks for enlightening discussions, and last week's visit to the Washington, DC branch of Stanford's Hoover Institution was no exception. The diverse panel of experts in the conference room above New York Avenue where the event was held included Hussain Abdul-Hussain, the Washington Burreau Chief of Alrai, a Kuwaiti newspaper, Hanin Ghaddar, the Friedmann Visiting Fellow at the The Washington Institute's Geduld Institute on Arab Politics and an expert on Shia politics, and Dr. Aykan Erdemir, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former Turkish Parliament member (2011-2015). Surrounded by slogans like "free enterprise" and "improving the human condition" we heard this panel discuss recent elections in Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq, and what the value of democracy is in a region where elections can hardly be categorized as "fair" or "free."

Of the three panelists, Dr. Erdemir's perspective was notably bleak. Since a failed coup rocked the Turkish political scene in the summer of 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has overstepped more and more democratic boundaries, imprisoning journalists, rigging elections, and restructuring the Turkish government in his favor. Now that Erdogan has once again "won" the most recent election (there was widespread rigging of the news media in Erdogan's favor, with one of his opponents receiving a total of 15 minutes of air time and speaking from prison and there were reports of widespread reports of voter intimidation), he has taken even more liberties in his consolidation of power, giving himself a decree power that basically renders the Turkish assembly irrelevant. Although voter participation is at a record high of 85% in many elections, Dr. Erdemir voiced a widespread sense of Turkish defeatism that democracy can only function as a speed bump or temporary roadblock against Erdogan's frightening consolidation of power.

In Iraq and Lebanon, the situation is notably more complicated. Both nations are governed by parliamentary democracies, but their party systems are based on entrenched sectarian divides, with the Lebanese parliament literally divided by religion, with the ratios of representation based on a 1930s census, because Lebanon has refused to perform one since. The problems arise because voters are given a very narrow selection of candidates belonging to their religious group and thus are not able to exercise much democratic influence. This systemic stagnation is worsened by the immense control Hezbolah controls in the Shia population and in the government as a whole and by the Iranian efforts to help establish a religious "parallel state." Ghaddar saw the future of Lebanese democracy in independent Shia candidates who ran against Hezbolah candidates at great risk to their own lives and in the few "Civil Society" candidates running on platforms of Western liberal democracy, who a rising force in Lebanese politics, though they were only able to win two seats in the last elections.

The Mexican Ambassador Speaks on AMLO and the Future of Mexican-American Relations

Last Tuesday, on a "Ted Trip" with the St. Albans School of Public of Service, a group of about 10 students and I traveled to the Hudson Institute, a relatively conservative-leaning think tank in downtown Washington, DC, to hear a presentation from the Mexican ambassador, Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández. The date of the event, July 3rd was just two days after the extremely consequential Mexican election, which saw populist-leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador win in an landslide with 53% of the vote, with the runner-up, center-right candidate Ricardo Anaya, winning less than 25%. For Gutierrez, who serves as a diplomat under the current president, centrist free trade advocate Enrique Peña Nieto, AMLO's election likely means he's out of a job, but he had a hopeful perspective looking forward to the future of Mexican-American relations.

AMLO, who won a majority in all but two states, represents a rising brand of egalitarian, nationalist populism that arose in large part from a general frustration, especially in the southern, more agrarian states, with uneven distribution of wealth gained from globalization and foreign investment. While tech hubs like Querétaro saw major development and a significant increase in standard of living, less-developed regions dependent on agricultural experienced below-average growth rates and a persistence of poverty and economic stagnation.

In the midst of a radical transfer of power, rapidly-changing national sentiments, and a growing battle over immigration exacerbated by President Trump's inflammatory rhetoric, Ambassador Gutierrez remained quite optimistic about the future of his country, its relations with the United States, and the negotiations to work out a "NAFTA 2.0" over the past year. While he did acknowledge that drug crime had risen under the Nieto government, which scores an approval rating of under 20%, Gutierrez was hesitant to criticize the lack of progress Nieto had made in negotiations with Trump, the inflammatory remarks Trump has made regarding Mexico and its immigration policy, and the overall dissatisfaction with the widespread corruption that has damaged Mexican democracy and led to the current AMLO administration. I always find it interesting hearing from appointed government officials, especially those whose job it is to represent their country favorably, because even when they are not officially on the job, they still feel obligated to paint the country they represent in the best possible light.

As a leftist myself, I am excited to see what AMLO will do once he assumes the presidency in December, and I hope the NAFTA negotiations are as productive as Ambassador Gutierrez would have me believe.

America and China: Two Insiders' Perspectives

On Friday afternoon, just as we were all ready to retire to our dorms for free time after hours of work on bills to be presented to a mock Congress, the St. Albans School of Public Service was paid a visit by two of the foremost experts on the future of Sino-American commercial relations, Senior Trade Representative for China Affairs Lisa Rigoli and Randall Phillips, the former top-ranking CIA official in Beijing. The husband-wife team had taken different career paths to their respective positions of authority, with Randall having always had his sights set on the intelligence community while Lisa gained experience in the private sector before being hired by the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Because Randall is retired, the height of his activity having been under the Bush and Clinton administrations in the 1990s and Lisa is currently working on hot-button trade issues like Trump's tariffs and protecting American IP, the two of them offered unique and informed perspective on China's past, present, future role on the world stage.

Although they presented different evidence, the general consensus between Mr. Phillips and Ms. Rigoli was that China has witnessed over a generation of economic growth, is currently experiencing a powerful wave of nationalism, and is poised to fill the void the United States is leaving in the global power structure through isolationist policies and ineffective diplomacy. Through actions like withdrawing from the TPP, the Paris Climate Accords, and the JCPOA, as well as an inconsistent foreign policy platform and consistent devaluation of traditional American alliances, the United States has opened a vacuum, and China under Xi Jinping intends to fill the role of global hegemon. The last three generations of Chinese have seen their country experiencing massive economic growth, and the momentum in China favors this trend continuing, especially since the poverty continues to decline and President Xi has consolidated his rule as "president for life."

From the perspective of Mr. Phillips and Ms. Regoli, America's largest trading partner should not be regarded as a threat per se, but rather treated as the formidable world power it is and kept under a watchful eye as its economic and geopolitical power continue to grow.

President Trump shakes hand with Xi Jinping
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-10/malcolm-turnbull-doesnt-have-to-picking-between-trump-or-xi/9135614

America's trade deficit with China has grown rapidly over the last three decades
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2017/03/30/averting-a-chinese-american-trade-war